Tuesday, November 02, 2004

The Choice

Baton Rouge

The campaign's finally over and already people across the country are putting crosses in boxes, or even punching chads. It's taken a long old time to get to this point.

The prominence of certain issues in this campaign has completely baffled me. One in particular. As Jay Leno said last night, "At long last, we can say the Vietnam War is over!" Whether the issue of what Bush and Kerry did or didn't do in the 1960s has any impact on how people vote is impossible to tell, but I doubt it. Even the now-infamous Swift Boat Veterans smear campaign against Kerry was more of a firestorm in the media than something that will genuinely affect today. The same goes for almost all the policies the two men have been promoting, they've both been preaching to the converted. I don't think the last few months has changed many people's minds, the difference between the candidates' popularity has barely been outside the margin of polling error since March. Apart from a handful of people who have gone from backing Nader in 2000 to Kerry this time out of anti-Bush spite, I've not met a single undecided voter or voter who has switched from four years ago. But then there really isn't as much difference between Bush and Kerry as they'd like us to believe.

Turnout will be higher this time. I must have been asked 20 or 30 times in various places if I'm registered to vote. But despite that the whole country hasn't been swept with election fever. The system means only a handful of states are in a position to really affect the outcome, so the two sides concentrate all their advertising in those places. When I was in Colorado (a close Senate race there has given Kerry hope of winning too) in a lot of commercial breaks every single advert was political. Every single one. There were posters everywhere. Down here in Louisiana where Bush is likely to win handily almost all the TV spots are for local races and I've not seen a single ad for Kerry. The two men don't bother going to all the states either. For example Kerry hasn't campaigned in Texas, although given some of the signs I saw there ("Time to Reload - Bush 2004!") I don't really blame him.

So who's going to win? Probably Bush, but only just. He's been consistently 1 or 2 points ahead in the polls in recent days and that goes up slightly when only 'likely' voters are counted. But even if Bush takes most of the popular vote Kerry could still win. Some polls yesterday put him edging in front in Florida and possibly even Ohio. Victory in those two states along with the other major battleground of Pennsylvania would almost certainly put Kerry into the White House. Even after two long years of this, it's still too close to call.

2 Comments:

At 2 November 2004 at 21:45, Anonymous Anonymous said...

.

Typical Sky News pollster !!

TCTC indeed, but isn't an actual prediction what people really expect !!!!!!

PYMWYMI !!!!

Buda

.

 
At 2 November 2004 at 21:46, Anonymous Anonymous said...

.

Typical Sky News pollster !!

TCTC indeed, but isn't an actual prediction what people really expect !!!!!!

PYMWYMI !!!!

Buda

.

 

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